CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-09-07T07:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-09-07T07:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33225/-1
CME Note: Bright CME to the south associated with the long duration M1.6 class flare peaking at 2024-09-07:49Z from AR 3815 (~S30E15). Coronal signatures include a wide opening of field lines/departure of mass from the corona best seen in EUVI A 195, high rising post-eruptive arcades and dimming to the west and south of AR 3815 in AIA 193 after the flare, a movement of a loop/ejecta and a wide opening of field lines seen in AIA 171 to the south. The CME has multiple different consecutive fronts, the most prominent being the southern brighter front. There is also one or two very faint more eastern fronts, more clearly seen in STEREO A COR2.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-11T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/33227/1 Model Inputs: 2024-09-07T07:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=-38.0, Speed=487.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2024-09-07T14:48Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-09-11T00:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=2 (kp)180=4 Other Location(s) Impact: Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-09-11T04:00Z Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-09-09T09:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 81.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-09-07T14:12Z
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